Russian fuel exports are expected to reach their lowest level in eight years this October, driven by a drop in refining activity and seasonal maintenance. Seaborne fuel shipments averaged around 1.9 million barrels per day in the first 20 days of the month, marking an 11% decrease from September and slightly lower than August, according to data from Bloomberg and Vortexa Ltd.
Reduced refining profits have made operations less viable at certain facilities, contributing to this downturn. Russian oil exports remain a crucial indicator of production trends, particularly as official data is now classified. Despite the dip in refined product exports, crude exports have risen, hitting the highest levels since June in the week ending October 20.
The significant reduction in fuel exports underscores the vulnerability of Russia’s energy sector under pressure. To effectively curb Russia’s financial capacity to support military actions, an increase in sanctions targeting energy exports is essential. By tightening restrictions on Russia’s key revenue stream, the international community could further weaken Moscow’s ability to sustain its aggression in Ukraine.
